Gov. Greg Abbott leads Democratic challenger Beto O’Rourke by 11 percentage points three days before early voting begins, according to a new poll by the University of Texas at Austin’s Texas Politics Project.
It’s one of the broader benefits Abbott has registered with potential voters in the polls. Abbott said she had a five-point advantage in her last UT poll, which took place in his early September, but it was among registered voters. After Labor Day, pollsters tend to switch from a sample of registered voters to a sample of voters.
Abbott won 54% of voters in the latest poll, while O’Rourke received 43%. 2% chose a third party candidate and another 2% said they would endorse someone else.
It was similarly bad news for Democrats in the five other statewide elections voted for. I was making an order of magnitude difference.
Early voting for the November 8 election will begin on Monday. Voters were most likely to choose between Mr. Abbott and Mr. O’Rourke, according to the poll, with only 7% saying they were somewhat or very likely to change their preferences.
Jim Henson, director of UT’s Texas Politics Project, said the results “underscore the difference between the final midterm elections of 2018 and 2022.”
“O’Rourke’s fortunes as a candidate were amplified by the 2018 national dynamic that boosted the Democratic Party,” Henson said, referring to O’Rourke’s near-miss loss to Texas Republican Senator Ted Cruz. Did. “However, the results of this poll show that he faces a very different national environment in 2022, and his efforts to close the fundamental Republican dominance in statewide elections. Instead of helping, it hurts.”
Democratic President Joe Biden remains unpopular in Texas, with 39% of registered voters supporting his work and 52% disapproving. And he’s not particularly popular when it comes to the issues voters consider most important on the ballot: immigration and border security.
Thirty-two percent of voters said immigration and border security were the main voting issues, 14 percent said the national economy, and 13 percent said abortion. Elsewhere he had no double digit problems.
By double-digit margins, voters probably said they trusted Abbott more than O’Rourke to do a better job in the border and state economy. On abortion, 44% said they trusted Abbott, and 44% said they trusted O’Rourke.
Registered voters marginally approve of the work Abbott does overall, at 47% to 44%, virtually unchanged from the last UT poll. O’Rourke’s approval rating remains upside down by 3 points among voters.
At the same time, registered voters still believe the state is headed in the wrong direction under Abbott. Fifty percent said they think the state is heading in the wrong direction, and 37% chose the right direction, similar to his margin in August.
In the poll, both candidates for governor have solidified support within their party, but Abbott leads independents 60% to 29%. Abbott leads in men by two digits, but in women she has only two points.
More notably, the poll shows that Hispanic voters are likely evenly split between the two at 48% each. Abbott has struggled to win the Hispanic vote, but most polls show O’Rourke leading the group.
Outside of the gubernatorial race, Patrick leads Democratic rival Mike Collier by 15 points. Comptroller Glenn Hager leads Democratic challenger Janet Dudding by 12 points. Agriculture Commissioner Sid Miller leads Democratic opponent Susan Hayes by 12 points. And Republican Dawn Buckingham leads Democrat Jay Kleberg in the open race for land commissioners by his 11th margin.
The poll was conducted online from October 7th to 17th. A polling firm sampled 1,200 registered voters and classified potential voters as those who said they had voted in every election in the last two to three years, or those who rated their likelihood of voting in November as 9 or 10 on a 10-point scale. defined as a person who evaluated This produced a sample of 883 voters. The margin of error for registered voters was +/-2.83 points, while the margin of error for prospective voters was 3.3 points.
This article was originally published in The Texas Tribune at https://www.texastribune.org/2022/10/21/greg-abbott-beto-orourke-poll/.
The Texas Tribune is a member-supported, bipartisan newsroom that informs and engages Texans about state politics and policy. For more information, visit texastribune.org.
