Despite overwhelming evidence, public denial by Russia and Iran has been driven by their leaders’ acceptance of an anti-Western worldview and conspiracy theories, their willingness to use violence to achieve regional goals, and their economic concerns. It highlights the growing common ground between the two nations, which are more closely linked than ever before. Isolation under sanctions, brutal repression of their own people, prejudice against public lies.
The relationship of convenience has become increasingly important for Russia, which has suffered a deep setback in the war in Ukraine and, in humility as an ambitious superpower, threatens to launch drone and missile strikes on Iran. I rely on you. You may be violating UN sanctions. Russia approved.
Closer ties could reshape regional alliances for decades to come.The Kremlin keeps Iran for arms and support to sustain the war, and Russia’s military spending as oil prices rise. To do so, it is cleverly balancing a competing relationship with Iran’s fierce rival Saudi Arabia.
Iran’s arms sale to Russia marks the Islamic Republic’s first intervention in a European war and marks a dramatic shift in its military role that poses uncertain risks to the United States, Israel, Turkey and others.
“This is a whole new chapter in Iran-Russia relations,” said Henry Rohm, an Iranian analyst at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. “It is Iran’s decisive move to commit itself so firmly to the war on European soil.”
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“Hitching a wagon to a country like Russia, even under the best-case scenario for Russia in the context of this war, would deeply weaken and damage Russia, and certainly is a dangerous proposition. ‘ said Rome.
Russia’s war against Ukraine has upended the geopolitical order in ways not seen since the fall of the Berlin Wall. With the constant threat of nuclear strikes, mutual accusations of plans to use “dirty bombs”, and growing evidence that Russia has committed war crimes, the fear of a new world war has never been higher.
Russian President Vladimir Putin believes that the corrupting West will be stripped of its influence and that he and other dictators will redivide the world into spheres of influence and give them the resources to enrich themselves. We dream of a multipolar world where we can assert empirical greatness while weeding and viciously suppressing dissent.
“The Iranian regime and the Russian Federation have one thing in common,” said Ray Takei, an Iran and Middle East analyst at the Council on Foreign Relations. “Both explain the strategic situation through the prism of conspiracy theory, and are similarly positioned at odds with the international community and their respective publics, which could increase the level of engagement between the two countries.”
With Iran determined to share its fate with Russia and China, hopes of reviving the 2015 nuclear deal abandoned by US President Donald Trump are fading.
The recent political unrest in Iran will only make Iran more likely to seek help from Russia, and Moscow, as a permanent member of the UN Security Council, should use its veto power to block any action against Tehran. can be done.
Iran’s leaders probably hoped that by supporting Russia’s fight in Ukraine, it would prove itself a serious military player globally and could leverage arms sales for much-needed revenue. They seem to believe they can weather the costs as the US and European Union impose new sanctions.
“I think there is strategic logic to this approach if you put yourself in the minds of some Iranian officials,” Rohm said. “I think the logic is most likely ‘Nuclear talks are counterproductive.’ Russia and China.”
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US officials have reported that Iran plans to send more drones and powerful ballistic missiles to Russia.
The US also said Iran is training Russian drone operators at bases in Russian-occupied Crimea. The Ukrainian National Resistance Center, part of Ukraine’s Special Operations Forces, reported this week that Iranian drone trainers are helping the Russians coordinate a drone strike in Mikrich near Gomel in southern Belarus. did.
As the West scrambles to supply Ukraine with better air defenses, the delivery of missiles from Iran could unbalance the war, resulting in further destruction of Ukraine’s infrastructure and a longer, bloodier war. It could be a lukewarm war, and it would be fading for Ukraine.
Moscow and Tehran fought side by side in Syria, supporting their mutual ally, dictator Bashar al-Assad. But the relationship has grown much closer this year, fostered by successive meetings between Russian and Iranian officials. Most notably, Putin met with Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei in July. Khamenei defended himself against a possible attack by accepting the false narrative that Russia had no choice but to invade Ukraine.
At a key meeting this month, Iran’s first vice president Mohammad Mohba and senior Iranian security officials visited Moscow, where they agreed to deliver new weapons, according to Reuters.
Blaming NATO for the killing of Ukrainians, Mokbar said Tehran had much to teach Moscow and proposed a joint working group to undermine Western sanctions.
In Moscow, Movvar met with Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin and said: “We have been under these sanctions for 40 years, and they have weakened the government of the country and have had a serious impact on us. I didn’t allow them to give or give,” he said.
At a meeting in July, Russian gas giant Gazprom signed a memorandum of understanding for a $40 billion deal with the state-owned Iranian Oil Company. In September, Russia sent a delegation of 65 of her business his leaders to Iran.
But despite all the optimism, the alliance carries risks and mistrust remains between Russia and Iran. Takei said Russia had previously voted in favor of UN sanctions against Iran over its nuclear program, and Iranian leaders said Russia would be useless during the international negotiations that led to the 2015 nuclear deal. I was watching
Competition for Russian and Iranian oil and gas sales has intensified recently, and Moscow is pivoting to China as a major future market, even as Iran’s economy suffers from high unemployment, inflation and shortages. to lower Iranian oil prices.
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Putin is proud of his position as a player in all aspects of business in the Middle East. But his war in Ukraine has contributed to turmoil in the global economy, especially in the energy sector, and created political headaches for Putin to carefully handle sensitive regional conflicts. .
Relations between Washington and Saudi Arabia have soured this month following a decision to work with Russia to cut oil production and keep prices high, with Biden saying, “I’m sorry for what they’ve done to Russia. It warns about the consequences.
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace analysts Andrew S. Weiss and Jasmine Alexander Green recently concluded that Putin could work with Saudi Arabia and the Persian Gulf states to exploit Russia’s oil resources and harm Western enemies. I wrote.
Saudi Arabia and others see Washington losing interest in the region, making cooperation with Moscow potentially more fruitful. In a foreign policy speech on Thursday, Putin said Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman was simply pursuing his own national interests.
“I know the crown prince personally,” Putin said. “He wants to balance the energy market. It’s sex, that’s what matters, and that’s what the Crown Prince strives for.”
Putin’s war has come to be seen as a testing ground for Iranian drones and weapons that Iran has repeatedly vowed to destroy, prompting Israel to back Ukraine. It’s getting more and more pressure.
Iran may want to reverse past Russia’s refusal to provide its S-400 air defense system and advanced fighter jets, a move that alarms Saudi Arabia and potentially Turkey.
Should Putin defeat and tear Ukraine to pieces, Iran, a key early ally, may also look to Russia for significant energy investments and support for international institutions.
But if a sanctioned and weakened Russia fails in Ukraine, Iran’s decision to tie itself up to President Putin will further undermine Iran’s own global economic and political prospects. “If Russia loses the war, whatever that means, if Vladimir Putin is still in power, the Russian Federation is Iraq in the 1990s, with a revengeable president who has committed war crimes. He’s an international actor,” said Takei.
However, Iran will likely still pursue closer ties with Moscow, as a victory for NATO-backed Ukraine will only strengthen Iran’s and Russia’s anti-Western prospects.
“It is important to them that Russia is isolated from the West and a rebellious actor dependent on a revisionist state,” Takei added.