Quran Burning in Sweden Enrages Turkey, Threatens Path to NATO Membership

Eight months have passed since Sweden and Finland announced their intention to join NATO. The move upended the two countries’ longstanding policies of non-alignment following the all-out invasion of Ukraine by neighboring Russia.

Most of the organization’s members want to quickly track the membership of new participants, but tensions and renewed disputes between Sweden and Turkey will extend that wait, possibly indefinitely. There is a fear.

All 30 current NATO states must approve new members. And Turkey, a key geopolitical player and home to her second-largest army in the alliance, stands as the main opponent of the Nordic countries’ accession.

The reasons behind Ankara’s opposition are complex, but mainly due to Sweden’s support for Kurdish groups that Turkey considers terrorists, and both Sweden and Finland, like other EU member states, to support Turkey’s It concentrates on the arms embargo it imposed on Turkey for targeting Kurdish militias. Syria.

Sweden and Finland are trying to turn their relations around with Turkey, but events in recent weeks threaten to dash any hopes of moving forward.

On Saturday, far-right demonstrators burned Korans and chanted anti-Muslim slogans in front of the Turkish embassy in Stockholm, Sweden. Ankara immediately condemned the act, as well as Sweden’s giving permission to right-wing groups to demonstrate. Turkey also canceled the upcoming visit of the Swedish Defense Minister, which would have focused on NATO membership.

Turkey’s foreign ministry said: “We condemn this vile attack on our sacred texts as strongly as possible. We condone this anti-Muslim act that targets Muslims and insults our sacred values ​​under the guise of freedom of expression. It is totally unacceptable to do so,” he said.

The Quran arson was led by Rasmus Pardan, who heads the far-right Danish party Hardline. Swedish officials say the protests are legal under the country’s free speech law, but the Swedish leader has denounced the action as “appalling”.

Over the weekend, protests were held in front of the Swedish embassy in Ankara and the Swedish consulate in Istanbul against arson by the Turks.

At another event earlier this month, Turkey summoned the Swedish ambassador after a video was released by a Swedish pro-Kurdish group showing a statue of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan hanging upside down on a rope.

Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Christersson has reportedly denounced the protests as “an act of sabotage” in the country’s bid to join NATO.

“At this rate, Sweden’s NATO membership will never be recognized by Turkey,” said Numan Kurturms, vice chairman of Erdogan’s ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP).

Last year Sweden, Finland and Turkey signed a tripartite agreement to overcome their differences and opposition to NATO membership.

But Sweden’s Kristersson said earlier this month that Stockholm was unable to meet all of Turkey’s demands, including the extradition of Kurdish journalists living in Sweden, but the demands were blocked by the country’s Supreme Court.

“Turkey admits we have delivered on what we have promised, but they also say they want what we cannot or don’t want to provide,” Christerson said at a January 8 meeting. ‘ said.

Nevertheless, he expressed confidence that Turkey would approve his country’s bid for NATO. Hungary, where populist leader Viktor Orban is on friendly terms with Russian President Vladimir Putin, is the only country other than Turkey that has yet to approve a bid.

Turkish analysts say Turkey’s latest angry statement has to do with Turkey’s elections scheduled for May 14 and gaining influence from other NATO allies, particularly the United States. increase.

Both the Quran burning and the Kurdish video of Erdogan’s statue “make it difficult to overcome the impasse” between Turkey and Sweden, said George Dyson, a senior analyst at consultancy Control Risks. rice field.

“But,” he told CNBC. .”

“It has more to do with the relationship between the United States and Turkey,” he added. “Turkey feels that the United States is a good friend when Turkey needs them, but not when Turkey needs them…or at least that’s the rhetoric.”

Timothy Ashe, senior emerging markets strategist at BlueBay Asset Management, said Turkey is doing a lot of damage to the Western alliance and NATO could be a pivotal choice between Turkey and the Nordics. I think.

“reach [the] The point that NATO allies have to decide between Turkey and Finland/Sweden? will lose.

Meanwhile, UK-based security and terrorism analyst Kyle Orton wrote in a blog post: [Sweden’s] NATO application hostage to demands for [Kurdish militant group] PKK. The Qur’an was burned in Stockholm yesterday,” he wrote, “Ankara is ironically trying to put pressure on Sweden’s internal affairs by interfering outrageously.”

There is also speculation that the US will use its promise of F16 jets—an arms sale long wanted by the Turkish government—to force Turkey’s hand. Some members of parliament have expressed opposition to the sale over Turkey’s position on the new NATO applicant.

Turkish presidential spokesman Ibrahim Kalin recently said Sweden would take eight to 10 weeks to make the changes requested by the Turkish government, as the Turkish parliament may go into recess before May’s elections. . Sweden has said it will take another six months to make these changes.

But whatever timeline Sweden follows, Turkish leadership is likely to maintain a hard line until the elections.

“In short, I don’t think much will happen before the Turkish elections,” Dyson said.