When Russia invaded Ukraine in February, a vicious and unprovoked war sparked a reaction both at home and abroad that exceeded even the Biden administration’s most ambitious expectations for retaliation. Now, the heartfelt support of American voters is fading, and the vast bipartisan support of Congress is beginning to collapse.
A Pew Research poll found that the percentage of Americans who said they were very or very concerned about Ukraine dropped from 55% to 38% from May to September.
That hesitation for Ukraine is making its way through the halls of Congress just two weeks after the midterm elections, leading to debate over whether and how the US should help more aid. Some progressive Democrats warned this week that support for aid to Ukraine may also be limitless. It’s starting
Just as the turbulent and developing political calculus surrounding Ukrainian aid in Washington means that Ukraine needs all the help it can get, is U.S. aid to Ukraine on the verge of splitting? Experts question whether. The Ukrainian Armed Forces are beginning to make progress with military aid received from the United States and other allies. After launching multiple counterattacks last month, Ukraine has begun to retake parts of its own territory, prompting Russian troops to withdraw and President Putin to rush to mobilize more troops.
Ukraine has exhausted many of its Soviet-era weapons and has begun to rely almost entirely on Western aid to keep the fight going. may be necessary for
Already Putin is sticking to some divisions, pointing out in a Thursday speech that there is no unity in the West. [leader], I will think seriously about this future, ”said Putin. “Some … politicians in the United States itself are pondering the current situation.”
The imminent stumbling block presents an important negotiation and foreign policy test to see if Biden’s approach to Ukraine has the political staying power to last through war. Just over a year after his chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan in power, Kyiv’s backing allies hope the outcome for Ukraine will be very different.
Republican leader Kevin McCarthy acknowledged last week that it would likely make it more difficult for Republicans to pass Ukraine’s aid if they win the House in the midterm elections.
“People will go into recession and not write a blank check to Ukraine,” McCarthy told Punchbowl News.
Other Republicans previously told The Daily Beast that they would “never” approve any more Ukrainian aid, citing concerns about inflation and Taiwan’s aid funding.
Some progressive Democrats are calling on the Biden administration to adjust its stance on Russia and work harder toward a diplomatic solution. In a letter widely derided as misplaced by Russia and military experts, Congressional Progressive Caucus Biden on Monday announced a negotiated settlement and ceasefire (a move Ukraine rejected), Ukraine’s “guarantees of security” (something the US has avoided giving to Ukraine for decades), sanctions relief and a direct deal with Russia. Asked for negotiations.
After a quick backlash from fellow Democrats, the caucus chairman, Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-WA), issued a clarification arguing that Democrats still support Ukraine.By Tuesday, Jayapal announced he wanted to “withdrawal” letter.
But the latest doubts about Ukraine’s path have come from leading lawmakers such as Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-New York), Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-Minnesota) and Rep. Jamie Ruskin (D-Maryland). flying around. Having the letter signed is an important signal for Biden and his entourage. The exchange suggests that current plans to help Ukraine may not be politically acceptable, even if victory takes time.
Progressives, like many Republicans wary of green-lighting Ukraine’s aid, have expressed concern that the war is causing big problems for Americans’ wallets. months,” the Democrats said in the letter.
And according to Jim Townsend, former assistant secretary of defense (DASD) for European and NATO policy, efforts to retract the letter do not necessarily negate some of the suggestions or sentiments Democrats have referred to. “It was too late and weak to come after the fact,” he told the Daily Beast. I have no doubt.”
Some of the recent protests by lawmakers are consistent with Americans’ evolving attitudes toward Ukraine. According to Pew, his 32% of Republicans now think the US is providing too much aid to Ukraine, up from 9% in March. Democrats are also growing concerned, albeit to a lesser extent, about giving Ukraine too much support. 11% of Democrats say the US is doing too much right now, compared to 5% in March.
Biden’s prospects are bleak. Townsend said Biden would not only try to keep support for Ukraine and stop Russia from escalating the war, but also look over his shoulder to see if lawmakers would disrupt his agenda. It is clear that we need to keep an eye on
“It’s difficult for this administration to deal with dangers with Russia,” Townsend said. “We are in a state of polarization, and Ukraine has suddenly become part of the political discourse.”
The Biden administration’s tackle has so far been reactive. Following McCarthy’s threats, Biden admitted he was concerned that Republicans were blocking aid to Ukraine.
The president said he was “worried,” according to Poole’s report. However, he argued that he could work with the Republicans if they won. “I could always do that.”
The White House responded to the progressive letter by expressing its support for Ukraine.
John Kirby, the coordinator of the White House National Security Council, said: “We are not going to have a dialogue with the Russian leadership without representatives of the Ukrainians.
“We will continue to support them, as long as it continues,” White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre told reporters.
But abroad, some U.S. diplomats have already heard rumors from foreign governments that united support for Ukraine’s defense is quietly falling out of favor without a timetable for peace.
“Kissinger said the United States has no lasting friends or enemies, only lasting interests,” a U.S. Foreign Office officer stationed in the allies told the Daily Beast. , it is not only true for the United States, it is true for all countries, and the domestic interests of coalition members to prevent their citizens from being frozen by Russian restrictions [oil and natural gas] Replaces friendship. ”
Officials called the potential weakening of support for Ukraine’s defense both in Europe and at home “troublesome”.
“Putin thought this would be over in … a week. “But he may not be the only one who thought that this war and the Western involvement in it would be over by now.”
The backlash against the progressive letter shows that some lawmakers are still uninterested in bowing to President Putin.
“This letter is an olive branch to the war criminals who lost the war,” tweeted Rep. Jake Oakincross (D-Massachusetts). “We support Ukraine in all seasons,” Orkincross added in a comment to The Daily Beast.
Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Arizona), a member of the House Armed Services Committee, also lashed out at the progressive approach, arguing that the US must provide more weapons to defeat Russia.
“Russia does not recognize diplomacy, only strength,” he told the Daily Beast.
The concern is that if U.S. aid appears to be drying up, Putin could smell blood and double in Ukraine if critical U.S. aid stalls. Townsend warned that if US aid dwindles, Putin may over time plot to target other European countries as well.
What some Americans still don’t seem to understand deeply is that if Russia were to win in Ukraine and then attack NATO countries, it would go far beyond the promises Biden is currently making, and broader. It means that there is a possibility that the United States will be dragged into a serious war. Said.
“If the U.S. midterm elections brought in the rhetoric that ‘Aid to Ukraine must be curtailed,’ Putin might say, ‘That’s all I need to know,'” Townsend said. warned.
Fears have risen around the world in recent months that Putin is waiting for the political tide in Washington to turn. U.S. intelligence agencies issued a warning earlier this year that Russia’s influence operations are focused on convincing Western audiences that their aid is contributing to the lengthening of the war, according to a U.S. intelligence memo. warned that he was guessing The Daily Beast first reported.
Another intelligence memo warned that the Biden administration hopes Russia will try to interfere in the US midterm elections.
A poll on American sentiment about aid to Ukraine reflects the White House’s failure to adequately sell to Americans why America matters, according to some in the diplomatic community, and therefore soften the message. There may still be time to pick it up, according to former US Ambassador to Ukraine John Herbst, who backs Ukraine in the first place.
“The Biden administration understands that it would be disastrous if Russia wins in Ukraine and has established a framework to prevent that. It is a sensible framework, including sanctions against Daily Beast. “But Ukraine is slowly and cowardly implementing that framework, and the substantive assistance we provide does not include more advanced weapons that would help Ukraine defeat Russia faster. Hmm.”
He said it was Biden’s failure to break down the big picture systematically, clearly and consistently to rally Americans behind the cause.
“It’s a leadership failure,” said Herbst.
The Biden administration and members of Congress now need to discuss aid to Ukraine “many times” and “loudly” for the American people, another former U.S. ambassador to Ukraine, Bill Taylor, told The Daily. told Beast.
“Claim your support for Ukraine as support for U.S. national security. We are not doing this out of goodwill. We are supporting Ukraine because it will be,” Taylor said. “The recognition that Ukraine’s victory is our victory … because we recognize that Ukrainians stop that evil not at our borders, but at theirs.”
Townsend suggested that Biden might do well to share more analysis and messages from the administration on why the United States is firmly behind Ukraine in its wartime position.
“This could be a broader war in Europe, which would draw in NATO and it would draw in us,” Townsend said. “But I don’t think Americans really get it. Biden, maybe he should be on TV and go public.” [announcement]–I don’t know if that’s okay. See, I don’t know if he really does anything other than baffle everyone. ”
It’s not clear if Mr. Biden is the best representative on the matter. He raises the dire situation at a private reception with Democratic fundraiser ahead of the midterm elections, where, as reported by The Daily Beast, the president said Putin would frequently use nuclear weapons at these events. He made increasingly obvious threats, confusing and sometimes alarming those in attendance.
“It’s clearly on his mind,” one Biden Bandler said. It is worth knowing that there are